Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.019700 0.022333 0.025192 0.028529 0.032317 0.036487 0.041427
2025-06-08 0.015261 0.018808 0.022997 0.028312 0.034885 0.042759 0.052926
2025-06-15 0.013261 0.017297 0.022341 0.029118 0.038004 0.049284 0.064736
2025-06-22 0.011175 0.015264 0.020614 0.028145 0.038502 0.052288 0.072112
2025-06-29 0.009792 0.013918 0.019538 0.027774 0.039579 0.055955 0.080521
2025-07-06 0.008508 0.012528 0.018202 0.026822 0.039640 0.058092 0.086836
2025-07-13 0.007991 0.012159 0.018237 0.027784 0.042477 0.064363 0.099682
2025-07-20 0.007479 0.011728 0.018117 0.028465 0.044905 0.070184 0.112333
2025-07-27 0.007079 0.011419 0.018133 0.029327 0.047649 0.076675 0.126586
2025-08-03 0.006498 0.010762 0.017534 0.029133 0.048654 0.080453 0.136730
2025-08-10 0.006024 0.010229 0.017077 0.029110 0.049904 0.084689 0.147964
2025-08-17 0.005526 0.009608 0.016415 0.028670 0.050386 0.087637 0.157190
2025-08-24 0.005219 0.009294 0.016256 0.029104 0.052460 0.093567 0.172393
2025-08-31 0.004833 0.008807 0.015758 0.028894 0.053370 0.097532 0.184426
2025-09-07 0.004643 0.008655 0.015833 0.029717 0.056219 0.105215 0.204090
2025-09-14 0.004213 0.008019 0.014974 0.028723 0.055566 0.106328 0.211217
2025-09-21 0.003908 0.007593 0.014467 0.028344 0.056038 0.109584 0.222806
2025-09-28 0.003559 0.007050 0.013691 0.027372 0.055252 0.110309 0.229325
2025-10-05 0.003473 0.007017 0.013893 0.028354 0.058458 0.119201 0.253491
2025-10-12 0.003359 0.006916 0.013954 0.029050 0.061130 0.127221 0.276554
2025-10-19 0.003270 0.006861 0.014100 0.029929 0.064255 0.136432 0.303040
2025-10-26 0.003080 0.006576 0.013750 0.029731 0.065055 0.140784 0.319178
2025-11-02 0.002920 0.006344 0.013493 0.029708 0.066228 0.146025 0.337791